After hitting the Florida Peninsula with heavy rain and strong winds Sunday into Monday, Isaac will head for a landfall along the northern Gulf Coast Tuesday into Wednesday. Our threat index graphic shows that Isaac is a significant threat to the Gulf Coast and everyone from far southeast Texas to Louisiana and Florida should monitor Isaac’s progress closely.
(MORE: Warn your friends | Satellite, projected path and more)
Isaac already has a large circulation, and, therefore, will likely have impacts of a size-scale (large wind field, large sections of coastal flooding, heavy rainfall) reminiscent of other large tropical cyclones of the recent past.
These impacts will extend outside the areas shaded on our projected path map.
Isaac Surge Potential
Isaac Surge Potential
Central, South Florida
Isaac’s first mainland U.S. stop was across the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula beginning Sunday.
Isaac’s center passed just southwest of Key West Sunday evening and is expected to move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday morning.
Impacts:
– Surge flooding (Peak water depths above ground if occurring at high tide: 1-3 feet for Florida’s West Coast, 1-2 feet southeast Fla. coast and Keys).
– High tide times for Tampa Bay, at Old Port Tampa, high tides are at 11:19 a.m. Monday, and 2:19 a.m. and 12:33 p.m. Tuesday.
(MORE: Tampa Bay flood threat)
– Winds: Strongest through midday Monday, tapering off slowly Monday night into Tuesday. Some downed tree limbs, powerlines, and power outages are expected.
– Rainfall flooding: Read more about the heavy rain threat here.
– Isolated tornadoes: Dr. Forbes’ latest TOR:CON forecast
(MORE: Isaac City Impact Forecasts)
Northern Gulf Coast
There is still some uncertainty where the greatest impacts from Isaac will ultimately be felt beyond central Florida.
(MORE: Why Isaac’s track is uncertain)
Everyone along the northern Gulf Coast in the hurricane-warned area from Louisiana to Florida should check our Weather Ready safety tips and rush preparations to completion Monday.
(CITIES: Biloxi | Mobile | New Orleans | Panama City | Pensacola | Tampa)
Below is a general timing of when impacts from Isaac could arrive. Note: the exact track and intensity of Isaac will ultimately determine the severity of impacts in these areas.
- Monday: Offshore winds (winds blowing from land toward the Gulf) will increase.
- Monday night: Tropical storm-force winds arrive in the hurricane-warned areas. Seas building from Fla. Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana. Some overwash flooding possible far southeast Louisiana (well southeast of New Orleans).
- Tuesday: Hurricane conditions arrive at the coast, particularly in center of forecast path. Peak storm surge near or just east of arrival of center of Isaac.
- Tuesday night: Hurricane-force winds may continue in hurricane-warned area. To east of Isaac’s center, strong onshore winds may keep water depths high in surge-flooded areas.
- Wednesday: Isaac should be inland, however, continued strong south winds, likely at least tropical-storm force, may maintain high water depths in some surge-flooded areas, particularly those near the center of the forecast path. Winds slowly tapering off along northeast Gulf.
For the latest storm surge forecast (water depths above ground), see our storm surge forecast map.
As with most any tropical cyclone, torrential rain and tornadoes will be also be concerns, including well inland.
Unfortunately, even though the models disagree on an ultimate landfall point, they seem to be in strong agreement that Isaac will hit the brakes just before or after its northern Gulf Coast landfall, potentially unleashing enormous amounts of rainfall near and just north and east of its center. Localized amounts in excess of 12 inches appear likely wherever this occurs.
Isaac Takes Aim on Gulf Coast
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As a reminder, forecast track errors of the center of a tropical cyclone average around grow 40-50 nautical miles per day, according to the National Hurricane Center.
These critical track uncertainties have large ramifications for impacts. To reiterate, preparations should be rushed to completion in the hurricane-warned areas.
(MORE: Weather Ready safety tips)
There are still several factors that could change the forecast, but as it moves closer to the U.S. you can ensure you know which friends may be in harm’s way through our My Friends Weather tool.
As always, stay tuned to The Weather Channel and weather.com in the days ahead as we update this forecast.
(UPDATES: Isaac Live Updates and Analysis)
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