Watching Tropical Storm Dorian
Did you see the movie “Mask”? Remember the criminal Dorian when he put on the mask? Let’s hope TS Dorian is not nearly as bad.
Dorian will continue tracking west-northwest over the next several days on the south side of the Bermuda-Azores high, and will remain over open waters through much of the upcoming weekend.
Dorian will approach the longitude of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, Sunday night into Monday. While it appears more likely Dorian’s center will track north of those locations, keep in mind average National Hurricane Center forecast track errors (2010-2012) in the four-to-five day period range from 180-235 statute miles.
Some fringe effects are possible in these areas even if the center tracks to the north, such as bands of locally heavy rainfall.
Additionally, there are some potential hostile factors for further strengthening.
First, dry, stable air is both immediately ahead of and blasting behind Dorian, according to an analysis by UW-CIMSS and NOAA/HRD.
Then, west to southwest wind shear may affect Dorian once it passes north of the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands early next week.
Average National Hurricane Center forecast intensity errors (2010-2012) in the four-to-five day range are roughly 15 knots. In this case, this could be the difference between Dorian diminishing to a low-grade tropical storm, or becoming the Atlantic season’s first hurricane.
It is far too soon to either rule out or speculate about a U.S. threat.
The latest forecast path and wind speeds from the National Hurricane Center.
So, where exactly is the cyclone’s center located now? If you’re plotting the storm along with us, click on the “Current Information” map below to get the latitude/longitude coordinates, distance away from the nearest land location, maximum sustained winds and central pressure (measured in millibars).
Click the magnifying glass to enlarge the image at left. Infrared satellite imagery is a sampling of the temperature of cloud tops. Brighter orange and red shadings signify colder cloud tops, indicative of healthy convection. If this is concentrated near the center of circulation, this signifies a healthy or intensifying tropical cyclone.
(INTERACTIVE: Animated Satellite Loop)
- Tropical Storm Dorian forms in the Atlantic (al.com)
- Tropical Storm Dorian Forms in Atlantic (whnt.com)
- Tropical Storm Dorian Gaining Strength in Eastern Atlantic (theepochtimes.com)
- Tropical Storm Dorian forms in Atlantic (myfox8.com)
- BREAKING NEWS: Tropical Storm Dorian Forms! (madisoncountytexasweather.wordpress.com)
- Dorian, The New Tropical Storm (wjhg.com)
- Tropical Storm Dorian gathers strength in Atlantic (usnews.nbcnews.com)
- Tropical Storm Dorian forms in the Atlantic (wgno.com)
- Tropical Storm Dorian forms in Atlantic (bizjournals.com)
- Tropical Storm Dorian forms in eastern Atlantic (miamiherald.com)