One comment on “Weather Watch: Tropical Storm “Dorian”

  1. Tropical Storm Dorian is fighting to maintain itself as a tropical cyclone. Dorian, the fourth named Atlantic storm of the season, formed over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean southwest of the Cape Verde Islands early Wednesday morning.

    Dorian will continue tracking west or west-northwest over the next several days on the south side of the Bermuda-Azores high, and will remain over open waters through the weekend.

    Dorian will approach the longitude of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, Sunday night into Monday, the Dominican Republic and Haiti Tuesday. While it appears more likely Dorian’s center will track north of those locations, keep in mind average National Hurricane Center forecast track errors (2008-2012) in the three-to-five day period range from 135-238 statute miles.

    Some fringe effects are possible in these areas even if the center tracks to the north, such as bands of locally heavy rainfall, areas of high surf/rip currents and minor coastal water rise.

    That all said, there are two significant hostile factors for further strengthening.

    First, Dorian is fighting dry, stable air both immediately ahead of and blasting behind the storm, according to an analysis by UW-CIMSS and NOAA/HRD.

    Then, west to southwest wind shear may affect Dorian, particularly as it passes north of the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands early next week.

    It is possible these two hostile factors may weaken Dorian such that it degenerates to either a tropical depression or tropical wave anytime in the coming days.

    Interests in the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Hispanola, the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas and eastern Cuba should still monitor the progress of this system.

    It is still too soon to rule out a U.S. threat, however, that threat looks low at this time.

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